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Fundraising: Valuation and pricing

A collection of terminology relating to valuations and pricing for fundraising initiatives.

C
Written by Collier Kirkland
Updated this week

📌 Educational Resource Disclaimer

This glossary provides general explanations of common equity terms. These definitions and examples are for educational purposes only and do not constitute legal, financial, or tax advice.

Equity structures vary significantly between companies, and your specific situation may have unique terms and conditions. For guidance on how these concepts apply to your individual situation, please consult with a qualified legal, financial, or tax professional.

409A Valuation

An independent appraisal of your company’s common stock fair market value, required by IRS regulations. This determines the strike price for stock options.

Why it’s required:

  • IRS Section 409A requires stock options to be granted at or above fair market value

  • Otherwise: Penalties and taxes for option holders

  • Safe harbor: Get independent 409A valuation

How often:

  • At company formation

  • Before any option grants

  • After material events (funding round, significant business changes)

  • A 409a is valid for 1 year starting from the Valuation Date

What determines FMV:

  • Recent funding rounds (preferred stock price)

  • Company financials and metrics

  • Market comparables

  • Discounts for illiquidity

Example:

  • Company raises Series A at $2.00/share (preferred stock)

  • 409A valuation: Common stock worth $0.50/share (after applying discounts)

  • Employee stock options: Granted at $0.50 strike price

Why preferred ≠ common:

  • Preferred has liquidation preferences, downside protection

  • Common is subordinated, less valuable

Why it matters: 409A valuations determine your strike price. You want it done right to avoid IRS penalties, but a lower valuation means cheaper options for employees.


Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model

A mathematical formula used to estimate the theoretical fair value of stock options by considering multiple variables including stock price, exercise price, time to expiration, volatility, risk-free interest rate, and dividends. Widely used in 409A valuations to determine the fair market value of employee stock options for tax and compliance purposes.

Key inputs:

  • Current stock price (FMV)

  • Exercise/strike price

  • Time to expiration

  • Volatility (expected price fluctuation)

  • Risk-free rate (Treasury yield)

  • Expected dividends (usually zero for startups)

Formula output: The model calculates a theoretical option value that reflects:

  • Intrinsic value (if any)

  • Time value (opportunity for future appreciation)

  • Volatility premium (higher volatility = higher value)

How it's used in 409A valuations:

  1. Determine common stock FMV

  2. Set strike price equal to FMV

  3. Input volatility estimates (from comparable companies)

  4. Use appropriate risk-free rate

  5. Model calculates option value for accounting/tax purposes

Example calculation inputs:

  • Common stock FMV: $2.00

  • Strike price: $2.00

  • Time to expiration: 7 years

  • Volatility: 45%

  • Risk-free rate: 4%

  • Expected dividends: 0%

  • Black-Scholes value: ~$1.20 per option

Why it matters: The Black-Scholes model is the standard method for valuing options in 409A reports. Understanding the inputs helps you see how option values are calculated and why volatility and time to exit significantly impact option worth.


Fair Market Value (FMV)

The price that a willing buyer would pay and a willing seller would accept for a share, neither being under any compulsion to transact. For private companies, determined by 409A valuation.

Used for:

  • Setting stock option strike prices

  • Calculating taxes on equity events

  • Determining spread for option exercises

  • Valuing equity grants for accounting

Why it matters: FMV drives all equity pricing and tax calculations. It’s especially important for options and early exercise decisions.


Preferred Stock Price

The price per share that investors pay for preferred stock in a priced funding round. This is typically much higher than the common stock FMV.

Example:

  • Series A: Investors pay $2.00/share for preferred stock

  • Same time: Common stock FMV (per 409A) is $0.50/share

  • Difference: Preferred stock has liquidation preference and other protections

Why it matters: Don’t confuse preferred price with common stock value. Employees’ options are priced at common FMV, which is substantially lower than preferred.


Probability Weighted Time to Exit

A valuation methodology that assigns probabilities to different potential exit scenarios (IPO, acquisition, dissolution) and their respective timeframes, then calculates a weighted average to determine the expected time to liquidity. This approach provides a more nuanced valuation than a single time-to-exit assumption by accounting for multiple possible outcomes and their likelihoods.

Key characteristics:

  • Multiple exit scenarios modeled

  • Each scenario assigned probability

  • Each scenario has different timing

  • Weighted average calculated

  • More sophisticated than single estimate

Common scenarios modeled:

  • IPO: Typically longer timeline (5-7 years), higher value

  • Strategic acquisition: Medium timeline (3-5 years), moderate value

  • Financial acquisition: Medium timeline (3-4 years), lower value

  • Dissolution/failure: Shorter timeline (1-2 years), minimal/zero value

How it works:

Example calculation:

  • Scenario 1 - IPO: 30% probability, 6 years

  • Scenario 2 - Strategic acquisition: 50% probability, 4 years

  • Scenario 3 - Financial acquisition: 15% probability, 3 years

  • Scenario 4 - Dissolution: 5% probability, 1 year

Probability-weighted time to exit: (0.30 × 6) + (0.50 × 4) + (0.15 × 3) + (0.05 × 1) = 4.3 years

Impact on valuation:

Example with values:

Scenario

Probability

Time

Exit Value

Weighted Value

IPO

25%

6 yrs

$500M

$125M

Acquisition

60%

4 yrs

$200M

$120M

Fire sale

10%

2 yrs

$50M

$5M

Dissolution

5%

1 yr

$0

$0

Total probability-weighted value: $250M

Probability-weighted time: 4.35 years

When it's used:

  • More mature 409A valuations

  • Complex cap table scenarios

  • Companies with multiple strategic options

  • Later-stage companies with clearer paths

Why it matters: Probability-weighted time to exit provides a more realistic valuation than assuming a single outcome. It acknowledges that startups face multiple possible futures with different probabilities and timeframes. This methodology often results in lower option values than assuming a single successful exit, reflecting actual risk.


Risk-Free Rate

The theoretical rate of return on an investment with zero risk, typically represented by U.S. Treasury securities (such as Treasury bills or bonds) with a maturity matching the time horizon of the investment being valued. In the Black-Scholes model and 409A valuations, the risk-free rate serves as a baseline for discounting future cash flows and determining option values.

Key characteristics:

  • Based on U.S. Treasury yields

  • Matches time horizon of investment

  • Reflects time value of money

  • Changes with market conditions

  • Currently ~4-5% (varies with Fed policy)

Which Treasury to use:

  • Short-term options (<1 year): Treasury bills

  • Medium-term (1-5 years): Treasury notes

  • Long-term (5-10 years): Treasury bonds

  • Typical for startups: 5-year Treasury note (most common time to exit)

How it's used in option pricing:

The risk-free rate affects option values by:

  • Higher rates = higher option values (time value of waiting is greater)

  • Lower rates = lower option values (less opportunity cost of waiting)

Example: Same option with different risk-free rates:

  • Strike price: $1.00

  • Stock price: $1.00

  • Volatility: 45%

  • Time to exit: 5 years

Risk-Free Rate

Option Value

2%

$0.72

4%

$0.78

6%

$0.84

Current environment (2024-2026):

  • Fed rates elevated to combat inflation

  • 5-year Treasury: ~4-4.5%

  • Higher than 2010-2021 period (near zero)

  • Increases option values vs. low-rate environment

Why it matters: The risk-free rate is a fundamental input in option pricing that reflects macroeconomic conditions. When Fed rates change, it affects option valuations in 409A reports. Understanding the risk-free rate helps you see how broader economic factors influence your equity compensation value.


Time to Exit

The estimated period until a liquidity event (such as an IPO or acquisition) occurs. In 409A valuations, time to exit is a critical assumption used to determine option values, as it affects both the expected holding period and the probability-weighted scenarios for company valuation at exit.

Key characteristics:

  • Expressed in years (e.g., 5 years)

  • Based on company stage and market conditions

  • Affects option value in pricing models

  • Longer time = more opportunity for appreciation

  • Can be single estimate or probability-weighted

How it's estimated: Valuation firms consider:

  • Company development stage

  • Historical time to exit for comparables

  • Current market conditions

  • Management projections

  • Funding runway and needs

Impact on option value:

Example: Same option with different time to exit:

  • Strike price: $1.00

  • Stock price: $1.00

  • Volatility: 45%

  • Risk-free rate: 4%

Time to Exit

Option Value

2 years

$0.52

5 years

$0.78

7 years

$0.91

Longer time to exit generally increases option value because there's more time for the stock to appreciate.

Stage-based expectations:

  • Seed/Series A: 5-7 years to exit

  • Series B/C: 3-5 years to exit

  • Late stage: 1-3 years to exit

Why it matters: Time to exit directly impacts option valuations in 409A reports. Companies earlier in their journey will typically have longer time to exit assumptions, which increases option values for accounting purposes but also reflects the longer wait until potential liquidity.


Volatility

A statistical measure of the degree of variation in a company's stock price over time, expressed as an annualized percentage. In the context of 409A valuations and option pricing, volatility represents the expected fluctuation in stock price and is a key input in the Black-Scholes model. Higher volatility increases option value because there's greater potential for significant price movements.

Key characteristics:

  • Expressed as annual percentage (e.g., 40% volatility)

  • Measured by standard deviation of returns

  • Higher volatility = higher option values

  • Estimated using comparable public companies for startups

  • Critical input in option pricing models

How it's calculated for startups: Since private companies have no trading history, valuation firms estimate volatility using:

  • Public company comparables in same industry

  • Stage-matched peer groups

  • Adjustment for private company factors

  • Typical range: 30-60% for early-stage startups

Impact on option value:

Example: Same option with different volatility assumptions:

  • Strike price: $1.00

  • Stock price: $1.00

  • Time to exit: 5 years

  • Risk-free rate: 4%

Volatility

Option Value

20%

$0.45

40%

$0.68

60%

$0.89

Higher volatility means greater uncertainty, which increases the chance of big gains (options benefit from upside without downside below strike price).

Why it matters: Volatility is one of the most impactful variables in option pricing. A company with 60% volatility will have options worth significantly more than a company with 30% volatility, even at the same FMV. Understanding volatility helps you appreciate option value beyond just the spread.

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